Retirement Architects Weekly Market Review: November 14th, 2025

Weekly Market Report: November 14th, 2025

Equity markets tried to take an overdue breather last week with earnings season largely behind us and inflation/FOMC dynamics taking on renewed focus. Despite some mid-week jitters, equity markets closed the week relatively flat with value outperforming growth domestically and international developed (+1%) and emerging (+0.75%) both posted stronger gains thanks to a weak USD (-0.31%). Interest rates inched higher across the curve, taking the 10yr back up to 4.14% to close the week.

Financial Market Highlights

• With encouraging 3Q earnings growth of 14.5% now in the rearview, equity markets looked more closely at the macro (inflation, labor) and monetary policy backdrop, translating to an upward drift on inflation/interest rates and a downward drift on Fed rate cut expectations.

Economic Highlights

• Absence of official inflation and jobs data drew attention to NFIB indications showing benign but stubborn inflation, weak sales expectations, and a stalling but not sharply deteriorating labor markets.
• BoA credit report reinforced the K-shaped recovery narrative with healthy consumer spending growth of 2.4% but barbelled in nature with anemic low income (0.7%) offset by strong high income (2.7%) spending. Wage growth eased unilaterally but was more pronounced in low-income deciles.

Policy Highlights

• The longest government shutdown on record ended last week but expectations are that data reliability and ripple effects will take some weeks to normalize.
• Ample Fed speak last week reinforced a cautious and uncertain path for monetary policy given absence of data and a lack of consensus going forward.
• An important and market impactful distinction on the SCOTUS ruling on POTUS use of IEEPA for tariff levies is whether refunds are mandated or not.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Productivity and the AI boom are complimented by strong earnings and persistent growth.
• Growth conducive policies across the monetary, fiscal, and regulatory landscape including a dovish Fed, stimulative fiscal budget deficits, and business friendly deregulation initiatives.
• Fading tariff policy uncertainty with administration officials aggressively pursuing trade deals and a potential judicial branch check on the executive branch use of the IEEP Act to levy trade taxes.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• A monetary policy mistake by the Fed given the complex and abnormal level of distortion stemming from historic tariffs, immigration policies, and pandemic aftereffects on inflation and labor markets.
• Narrow market reliance on AI stock momentum including aggressive free cash flow spending trends, surging capex, eyebrow raising circular investment, and high valuation/earning expectations.
• Risks to consumption given normalized interest rates, low growth labor markets, cumulative inflation effects, and a fatigued consumer balance sheet.
• Tariff levies moving to multi-decade highs and associated pressure on inflation and profit margins.