Weekly Market Report: April 2nd, 2026

Financial Market Highlights

• A primetime POTUS address Wednesday evening lacked any content that changed the complexion of market sentiment on the war, but the first half of April seems to be a critical juncture in the path of the conflict and corresponding economic/market consequences.

• Markets are entering 1Q earnings season on an upbeat note with forecasted earnings growth of 13.2% and an upward bias in guidance. Importantly, decomposing stock market returns over the past several years suggest an increasing reliance on sales and net margin to near-term stock market outcomes.

• The AI centric surge in technology capital expenditure has provided a substantial boost to growth and might best be categorized as a boom, not a bubble when viewed through a longer-term historical lens.

Economic Highlights

• Last week’s economic calendar was full including a robust March jobs report (178k), declining job openings, healthy retail sales, and survey data suggesting softening services output and increasing price pressures.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.

• Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.

• AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.

Weekly Market Report: March 27th, 2026

Equity and fixed income markets endured another week of pressure from the consequences of war, along with emerging legal risks to social media business models stemming from a court decision at the state level. Global equity markets were down 3% on the week, taking war-to-date and year-to-date results to -8% and -5%, respectively. Bond yields were again pressured to the upside, with 10-year Treasury yields approaching 4.5%, up from under 4% prior to the start of the war. Oil prices continued their ascent, with WTI crude up nearly 75% on the year and closing near $100 per barrel last week.

Financial Market Highlights

• Equity and bond markets, anticipating the duration of the war and related economic pressure, continued to price growth and inflation consequences with global equity markets losing 3% and bond yields moving higher again last week.

• The war in Iran dominated capital market sentiment again last week with the calendar looming larger by the day. An April 6th deadline imposed by Trump for Iran to allow oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and economic risks posed by the closure itself suggest the next week is a critical juncture.

Economic Highlights

• Last week’s economic calendar was again light and largely irrelevant but did see declining but expansionary PMI surveys and largely expected deterioration in consumer sentiment.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.

• Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.

• AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.

Weekly Market Report: March 20th, 2026

Financial Market Highlights

• The war in Iran and associated risks to global energy infrastructure delivered a third down week for equity and bond markets driven by commodity price risks to the global economy.

• While high yield credit spreads have remained sanguine, investor sentiment measures including growth outlooks and fund manager positioning have begun to deteriorate.

• Private credit, high yield’s first cousin, continues to garner substantial financial media coverage, but risks are likely to evolve very slowly, and the degree of systematic risk remains an open question.

Economic Highlights

• Last week’s economic calendar was light on the surface; government shutdown impacted, and again largely irrelevant given overwhelming risk drivers coming from the Strait of Hormuz.

• Economists put recession probability at 32% with elevated oil prices the key factor. Despite positive real wage gains since 2023, more is needed to catch up from the post pandemic inflation surge.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.

• Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.

• AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains

Weekly Market Report: March 13th, 2026

Financial Market Highlights

• Stock and bond markets remain transfixed to sporadic messaging regarding the war as investors look for indications on how long the global energy market disruption will last with energy prices reaching levels not seen since Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

• BlackRock gated their HPS Corp Lending Fund last week adding another chapter to private credit industry anxiety following on separate Blue Owl and Blackstone incidents.

Economic Highlights

• Last week’s busy economic calendar was largely disregarded as developments in the Middle East drove markets. Economic highlights included a downward revision to Q4 GDP, persistent inflation, and an increase in job openings.

• The historic run up in oil prices reach overbought levels not seen since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 introducing upward inflation pressure, including to gasoline prices which are up 16%.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.

• Growth conducive policies including a less restrictive Fed, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and consumer balance sheets in good condition thanks to market-related wealth effects and room to ‘re-lever’.

• AI implementation including infrastructure build, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock from the war in Iran add a key risk to consumption, particularly given the backdrop of a weak job market, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impact on price levels, supply chains, and business uncertainty.

• AI trends given narrow equity markets, significant capex profiles, and industry specific concerns including circular transactions, increased debt financing, and a shift to asset intensive business models.

Weekly Market Report: January 16th, 2026

Financial Market Highlights

• The S&P 500 closed down slightly on the week but not before marking a new record high. The new year is seeing leadership from small caps, non-U.S., and value stocks while growth stocks lag.
• Fourth quarter earnings season kicked off last week with expectations of double-digit earnings growth, particularly from the technology sector, and positive forward guidance from management.

Economic Highlights

• Last week’s economic calendar featured November inflation coming in at expectations along with data on retail sales, housing market, and industrial production. Inflation data reinforced the downward year over year trend, bolstering the more dovish voices within the FOMC.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Strong consumption with ample room for the consumer to re-lever and market-related wealth effects.
• AI boom including substantial infrastructure buildouts, projected productivity gains, and earnings potential.
• Growth conducive policy backdrops including a less restrictive Fed, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation.
• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, profit margins, and forward guidance.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Risks to consumption due to lower/middle class price fatigue (cumulative inflation), higher interest rates (sluggish housing market), and slowing labor markets.
• AI bust given unproven ROI/monetization profile, narrow equity markets, and industry specific concerns (circular transactions, increased debt financing, more asset intensive business models).
• Monetary policy mistakes given prevailing labor market dynamics and inflation trends.
• Tariff and immigration policies introducing longer-term structural headwinds on aggregate demand, trade, and hiring alongside shorter-term goods and sectoral level labor inflation.

Weekly Market Report: January 9th, 2026

Financial Market Highlights

• Value and non-U.S. stocks have begun the year slightly ahead of U.S. and growth stocks with strategist projecting a continued rotation from tech to non-tech sectors looking forward.

Economic Highlights

• Economic data last week was centered around health of the labor market, including a low hires-low fires December jobs report, official survey data, and private sector measures. Taken together, the data confirm tepid demand and an overall mixed outlook with a low hiring, low firing backdrop.
• Growth forecasts continue to paint a constructive picture of overall U.S. economic activity with Q4 model estimates from the NY Fed of 2.6 % and Atlanta Fed of 5.1% and Q1 of 2.6% (NY Fed).

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Strong consumption with ample room for the consumer to re-lever and market related wealth effects.
• Growth conducive policies including a less restrictive Fed, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation.
• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, profit margins, and forward guidance.
• An AI boom including substantial capex and longer-term productivity gains/earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Risks to consumption due to lower/middle class price fatigue (cumulative inflation), higher interest rates (sluggish housing market), and slowing labor markets.
• Reliance on AI stock momentum and capex with unknown ROI and monetization potential alongside circular transactions, debt financed expenditures, and a pivot to asset intensive business models.
• Tariff and immigration policies introducing longer-term structural headwinds on aggregate demand, trade, and hiring alongside shorter-term goods inflation and sectoral level labor inflation.
• Fed policy mistake of being too restrictive (or accommodative) given labor and inflation dynamics.
• Fading U.S. fiscal thrust beyond Q3’26 with constraints on continuing elevated deficit spending.