Retirement Architects Weekly Market Review: March 13th, 2026

Weekly Market Report: March 13th, 2026

Another volatile week in financial markets dominated by the evolving war in Iran produced a modest drawdown in global equity markets leaving U.S. equity market down 3.1% YTD and 5.3% from its late January record high. Bond yields increased across the curve due to heightened anxiety surrounding energy price driven inflation pressures, pushing 10yr yields up to 4.28%. Commodities traded higher given the rally in oil prices, which closed just short of the $100 level.

Financial Market Highlights

Stock and bond markets remain transfixed to sporadic messaging regarding the war as investors look for indications on how long the global energy market disruption will last with energy prices reaching levels not seen since Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
BlackRock gated their HPS Corp Lending Fund last week adding another chapter to private credit industry anxiety following on separate Blue Owl and Blackstone incidents.

Economic Highlights

Last week’s busy economic calendar was largely disregarded as developments in the Middle East drove markets. Economic highlights included a downward revision to Q4 GDP, persistent inflation, and an increase in job openings.
The historic run up in oil prices reach overbought levels not seen since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 introducing upward inflation pressure, including to gasoline prices which are up 16%.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.
Growth conducive policies including a less restrictive Fed, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation.
Resilient consumption with low unemployment and consumer balance sheets in good condition thanks to market-related wealth effects and room to ‘re-lever’.
AI implementation including infrastructure build, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

Energy price shock from the war in Iran add a key risk to consumption, particularly given the backdrop of a weak job market, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.
Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impact on price levels, supply chains, and business uncertainty.
AI trends given narrow equity markets, significant capex profiles, and industry specific concerns including circular transactions, increased debt financing, and a shift to asset intensive business models.

This communication is provided for informational purposes only and is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or other investment. This communication does not constitute, nor should it be regarded as, investment research or a research report, a securities or investment recommendation, nor does it provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. Additional analysis of your or your client’s specific parameters would be required to make an investment decision. This communication is not based on the investment objectives, strategies, goals, financial circumstances, needs or risk tolerance of any client or portfolio and is not presented as suitable to any other particular client or portfolio.