Weekly Market Report: March 27th, 2026
Equity and fixed income markets endured another week of pressure from the consequences of war, along with emerging legal risks to social media business models stemming from a court decision at the state level. Global equity markets were down 3% on the week, taking war-to-date and year-to-date results to -8% and -5%, respectively. Bond yields were again pressured to the upside, with 10-year Treasury yields approaching 4.5%, up from under 4% prior to the start of the war. Oil prices continued their ascent, with WTI crude up nearly 75% on the year and closing near $100 per barrel last week.
Financial Market Highlights
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Equity and bond markets, anticipating the duration of the war and related economic pressure, continued to price growth and inflation consequences with global equity markets losing 3% and bond yields moving higher again last week.
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The war in Iran dominated capital market sentiment again last week with the calendar looming larger by the day. An April 6th deadline imposed by Trump for Iran to allow oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and economic risks posed by the closure itself suggest the next week is a critical juncture.
Economic Highlights
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Last week’s economic calendar was again light and largely irrelevant but did see declining but expansionary PMI surveys and largely expected deterioration in consumer sentiment.
Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives
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Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.
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Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.
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Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.
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AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.
Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives
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Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.
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AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.
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Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.