Retirement Architects Weekly Market Review: April 2nd, 2026

Weekly Market Report: April 2nd, 2026

Another roller coaster week of war for financial markets with optimistic hints of de-escalation countered by unabated kinetic action including Iranian strikes on Gulf oil tankers and regional U.S. allies, a downed U.S. F-16 fighter jet, and multiple U.S. strikes on Iranian industrial capacity. Equity markets broke their streak of down moves with U.S. markets up 1.6% and both developed (+3.5%) and emerging (+2.0% markets trading higher as well. Bond yields took a breather as well, with 10yr UST yield falling approximately 10bps. Interestingly, oil prices did not reflect any Iran war de-escalation sentiments that equity and bond markets did, trading nearly 11% higher to close near the high levels reached in 2022.

Financial Market Highlights

A primetime POTUS address Wednesday evening lacked any content that changed the complexion of market sentiment on the war, but the first half of April seems to be a critical juncture in the path of the conflict and corresponding economic/market consequences.
Markets are entering 1Q earnings season on an upbeat note with forecasted earnings growth of 13.2% and an upward bias in guidance. Importantly, decomposing stock market returns over the past several years suggest an increasing reliance on sales and net margin to near-term stock market outcomes.
The AI centric surge in technology capital expenditure has provided a substantial boost to growth and might best be categorized as a boom, not a bubble when viewed through a longer-term historical lens.

Economic Highlights

Last week’s economic calendar was full including a robust March jobs report (178k), declining job openings, healthy retail sales, and survey data suggesting softening services output and increasing price pressures.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.
Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.
Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.
AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.
AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.
Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.

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