Weekly Market Report: April 10th, 2026
It was another noisy week in financial markets in an “off again on-again” conflict raging in Iran. Equity markets enjoyed a seven-day streak of gains ending Friday last week as investors cheered a last-minute ceasefire and pursuit of talks over the weekend. Global stocks rallied with the S&P 500 up 3.6% and non-U.S. stocks up over 5% on the week. Bond yields were a bit more cautious, falling less than 5bps but oil fell back under $100 for the time being.
Financial Market Highlights
-
While failed talks and continued pressure resurfaced over the weekend, last week’s two-week ceasefire agreement—reached hours before last Tuesday’s 8 p.m. ultimatum—led to a significant equity market rally, but bond yields and oil prices remained more skeptical and elevated.
-
Early indications on first quarter earnings season remain robust at a 12.6% blended growth, a potential 6th consecutive double-digit quarter, with beat rates running at 80% and beat margins at 15.7%, albeit versus downward revisions since March 31st.
Economic Highlights
-
Last week brought markets some ‘war time’ economic reports including accelerating March inflation (as expected), strong ISM Services indications, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and some downward revisions to final 4Q consumption and GDP (0.5%).
Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives
-
Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.
-
Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.
-
Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.
-
AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.
Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives
-
Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation (bond yields) and economic growth (demand) particularly given soft labor market, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.
-
AI momentum given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset/capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.
-
Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.