Retirement Architects Weekly Market Review: March 20th, 2026

Weekly Market Report: March 20th, 2026

Last week the Iran war intensified through both rhetorical and military lenses including damage to regional energy infrastructure. Capital markets responded accordingly with a fourth consecutive drawdown in equity markets and inflation risks pressuring bond yields higher. For the week, U.S. stocks lost 2% with growth underperforming value and non-U.S. stocks fell 2.5%. U.S. equity markets are off approximately 6% since the war began and bond yields up nearly 50bps. Non-U.S. equity markets continued to shoulder more downside given the strengthening USD and more direct energy supply implications relative to the United States.

Financial Market Highlights

The war in Iran and associated risks to global energy infrastructure delivered a third down week for equity and bond markets driven by commodity price risks to the global economy.
While high yield credit spreads have remained sanguine, investor sentiment measures including growth outlooks and fund manager positioning have begun to deteriorate.
Private credit, high yield’s first cousin, continues to garner substantial financial media coverage, but risks are likely to evolve very slowly, and the degree of systematic risk remains an open question.

Economic Highlights

Last week’s economic calendar was light on the surface; government shutdown impacted, and again largely irrelevant given overwhelming risk drivers coming from the Strait of Hormuz.
Economists put recession probability at 32% with elevated oil prices the key factor. Despite positive real wage gains since 2023, more is needed to catch up from the post pandemic inflation surge.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.
Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.
Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.
AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.
AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.
Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains

This communication is provided for informational purposes only and is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or other investment. This communication does not constitute, nor should it be regarded as, investment research or a research report, a securities or investment recommendation, nor does it provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. Additional analysis of your or your client’s specific parameters would be required to make an investment decision. This communication is not based on the investment objectives, strategies, goals, financial circumstances, needs or risk tolerance of any client or portfolio and is not presented as suitable to any other particular client or portfolio.