Weekly Market Report: April 17th, 2026

Risk markets rallied a third consecutive week on continued de-escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East with an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire joining the U.S.-Iran agreement. Iranian indications of an open Strait of Hormuz, halted bombings, and significantly cooled rhetoric drove stock markets to record highs and pressed oil prices and bond yields lower. Weekend developments again raised questions on the nature of the tenuous agreement with financial and commodity markets firmly in their grasp.

Financial Market Highlights

• Financial and oil market exuberance over U.S. and Iranian demonstrated interest in finding an off ramp was pronounced last week with indications of a wider regional deal and opening of the SOH to tanker traffic. Weekend developments made clear a gap remains between the two sides.

• The MOU sketch to end the Iran war and open the SOH remains a developing story with a good amount of work remaining but political considerations and markets suggest an agreement is near.

• Easing financial conditions and early 1Q earnings indications running at blended earnings and revenue growth rates of 13.2% and 9.9% respectively offer strong fundamental support in the backdrop.

Economic Highlights

• Last week was a very light economic calendar with no meaningful surprises. Highlights included a mixed NFIB Small Business Optimism survey, sluggish industrial activity, and languishing housing market data, all coming in below consensus expectations.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate fundamentals including strong earnings + revenue growth and positive forward revisions + guidance.

• Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.

• AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation (bond yields) and economic growth (demand) particularly given soft labor market, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• AI momentum given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset/capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.

Weekly Market Report: April 10th, 2026

It was another noisy week in financial markets in an “off again on-again” conflict raging in Iran. Equity markets enjoyed a seven-day streak of gains ending Friday last week as investors cheered a last-minute ceasefire and pursuit of talks over the weekend. Global stocks rallied with the S&P 500 up 3.6% and non-U.S. stocks up over 5% on the week. Bond yields were a bit more cautious, falling less than 5bps but oil fell back under $100 for the time being.

Financial Market Highlights

• While failed talks and continued pressure resurfaced over the weekend, last week’s two-week ceasefire agreement—reached hours before last Tuesday’s 8 p.m. ultimatum—led to a significant equity market rally, but bond yields and oil prices remained more skeptical and elevated.

• Early indications on first quarter earnings season remain robust at a 12.6% blended growth, a potential 6th consecutive double-digit quarter, with beat rates running at 80% and beat margins at 15.7%, albeit versus downward revisions since March 31st.

Economic Highlights

• Last week brought markets some ‘war time’ economic reports including accelerating March inflation (as expected), strong ISM Services indications, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and some downward revisions to final 4Q consumption and GDP (0.5%).

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.

• Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.

• AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation (bond yields) and economic growth (demand) particularly given soft labor market, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• AI momentum given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset/capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.

Weekly Market Report: April 2nd, 2026

Financial Market Highlights

• A primetime POTUS address Wednesday evening lacked any content that changed the complexion of market sentiment on the war, but the first half of April seems to be a critical juncture in the path of the conflict and corresponding economic/market consequences.

• Markets are entering 1Q earnings season on an upbeat note with forecasted earnings growth of 13.2% and an upward bias in guidance. Importantly, decomposing stock market returns over the past several years suggest an increasing reliance on sales and net margin to near-term stock market outcomes.

• The AI centric surge in technology capital expenditure has provided a substantial boost to growth and might best be categorized as a boom, not a bubble when viewed through a longer-term historical lens.

Economic Highlights

• Last week’s economic calendar was full including a robust March jobs report (178k), declining job openings, healthy retail sales, and survey data suggesting softening services output and increasing price pressures.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.

• Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.

• AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.

Weekly Market Report: March 27th, 2026

Equity and fixed income markets endured another week of pressure from the consequences of war, along with emerging legal risks to social media business models stemming from a court decision at the state level. Global equity markets were down 3% on the week, taking war-to-date and year-to-date results to -8% and -5%, respectively. Bond yields were again pressured to the upside, with 10-year Treasury yields approaching 4.5%, up from under 4% prior to the start of the war. Oil prices continued their ascent, with WTI crude up nearly 75% on the year and closing near $100 per barrel last week.

Financial Market Highlights

• Equity and bond markets, anticipating the duration of the war and related economic pressure, continued to price growth and inflation consequences with global equity markets losing 3% and bond yields moving higher again last week.

• The war in Iran dominated capital market sentiment again last week with the calendar looming larger by the day. An April 6th deadline imposed by Trump for Iran to allow oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and economic risks posed by the closure itself suggest the next week is a critical juncture.

Economic Highlights

• Last week’s economic calendar was again light and largely irrelevant but did see declining but expansionary PMI surveys and largely expected deterioration in consumer sentiment.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.

• Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.

• AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains.

Weekly Market Report: March 20th, 2026

Financial Market Highlights

• The war in Iran and associated risks to global energy infrastructure delivered a third down week for equity and bond markets driven by commodity price risks to the global economy.

• While high yield credit spreads have remained sanguine, investor sentiment measures including growth outlooks and fund manager positioning have begun to deteriorate.

• Private credit, high yield’s first cousin, continues to garner substantial financial media coverage, but risks are likely to evolve very slowly, and the degree of systematic risk remains an open question.

Economic Highlights

• Last week’s economic calendar was light on the surface; government shutdown impacted, and again largely irrelevant given overwhelming risk drivers coming from the Strait of Hormuz.

• Economists put recession probability at 32% with elevated oil prices the key factor. Despite positive real wage gains since 2023, more is needed to catch up from the post pandemic inflation surge.

Bullish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Robust U.S. corporate earnings growth, strong profit margins, and positive forward guidance.

• Growth conducive policies across both fiscal (elevated deficit spending) and regulatory landscapes.

• Resilient consumption with low unemployment and under levered consumer balance sheets.

• AI implementation including infrastructure buildouts, productivity gains, and earnings potential.

Bearish Asset Allocation Narratives

• Energy price shock resulting from U.S. foreign policy in Iran and associated risks to inflation and economic growth, particularly given soft labor market hiring/wage gains, cumulative inflation dynamics, and depressed consumer savings rates.

• AI trends given the current equity market profile, shifts toward asset and capex intensive business models, concerns surrounding circular transactions, increased debt financing, and disruptive forces across labor markets and business models.

• Tariff (trade) policy uncertainty and impacts on business uncertainty, price levels, and supply chains